Pass completion is more important than goals (weeks 1-3)

In an age of Sergio Agüeros, Diego Forláns, transfer deadlines and Monday Night Football, it's easy to lose sight of what the game is really about: completing the shit out of a whole bunch of passes. So here - published no fewer than three games into the season, you'll note - is what the Premier League table really looks like. Yes, you better believe this will be a weekly feature.

Passes attempted

Passes completed

Pass difference

Pass completion %

Swansea

1809

1467

342

81.09

Man. City

1663

1348

315

81.05

Man. United

1640

1329

311

81.03

Chelsea

1782

1444

338

81.03

Arsenal

1592

1273

319

79.96

Wigan

1218

953

265

78.24

Liverpool

1653

1281

372

77.50

Tottenham

934

717

217

76.77

Fulham

1446

1071

375

74.07

West Brom

1228

907

221

73.86

Wolves

1334

965

369

72.34

Aston Villa

1292

920

372

71.21

Everton

938

667

271

71.11

QPR

1250

864

386

69.12

Newcastle

1132

781

351

68.99

Bolton

1265

871

394

68.85

Norwich

1062

730

332

68.74

Sunderland

1054

706

348

66.98

Blackburn

1159

774

385

66.78

Stoke

1056

698

358

66.10


Clearly, congratulations are in order for Swansea City, who have stayed loyal to the true heart of football. Look at United and Chelsea there, separated only by pass difference. And isn't it great to see plucky Wigan Athletic challenging for a place in next season's Pass Completion Champions League?

Data collected from Guardian Chalkboards, but any error is probably mine.
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3 comments:

  1. Andysocial30 August 2011 at 14:41

    That's brilliant actually. good hints on who to avoid for your Fantasy League midfielders, too.

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  2. Steven Perkins31 August 2011 at 12:59

    The metric for separating teams is not really the best. If the percentages are the same then using the "pass difference" will favour the team that has made fewer successful passes when it seems clear that 80% pass completion over 2000 passes is better than 80% over 1000. In this example the teams would have a "pass difference" of 400 and 200 respectively and so the 1000 total pass team would be higher.

    Technically this relates to the variance of estimators. The "pass completion %" can be seen as an estimate for the teams actual probability of completing a pass, with the larger sample size giving a more consistent estimator.

    I'm sure it's not something that will actually come up that often if you take the percentages to a greater accuracy though.

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  3. Charlie Anderson1 September 2011 at 13:39

    Thanks for the feedback Steven. I was aware of the limitations of using "pass difference" - for instance, Tottenham and Everton have a markedly better PD than everybody else because they have played one game fewer. The point you raise about number of passes is an excellent one as well.

    Statistical analysis is not really something I do (obviously the post above is not intended to be taken entirely seriously) but I intend to update this table regularly so I figure it's worth doing it properly. From now on I'll take the completion percentages to a greater degree of accuracy, and if you have any other suggestions about what I could do with the data then I'd be delighted to hear them.

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